NFL spread model: track record

Every pick the model has made since 2015, settled against the spread at the posted price. 2015-2020 trained the rules, 2021-2025 tested them, and 2026 is live.

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Cumulative units

1 unit risked per pick · active tiers

Record by season

By confidence tier

p-value: one-sided vs 52.4% break-even